Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| NYM | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The New York Mets closed out September 30 at Citi Field with a 4-3 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 45 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. New York scored three runs in the first inning and one in the second to build a commanding early lead, and that cushion proved sufficient despite a late Philadelphia push. The Phillies managed single runs in the eighth and ninth innings but could not complete the comeback, finishing with seven hits against no errors while the Mets posted five hits of their own.
The swing moments of the game came in bunches. Luis Guillorme's flyout in the bottom of the first added 10.0 percent win probability to the Mets' ledger as New York was already capitalizing on Taijuan Walker, and Francisco Lindor contributed a flyout in the bottom of the second worth an additional 9.0 percent. On the Philadelphia side, Weston Wilson's single off Adam Ottavino in the top of the ninth briefly reopened the door, adding 13.2 percent win probability for the Phillies, but Cristian Pache's subsequent flyout off Ottavino erased nearly all of that, swinging 12.7 percent back toward New York and effectively sealing the outcome. Wilson's groundout in the second had already cost his team 9.7 percent in an inning where damage control mattered most.
Tylor Megill was the game's dominant individual performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, contributing plus-30.0 percent win probability on the mound to lead all players. Guillorme and Lindor paced the Mets offensively at plus-8.9 and plus-8.8 percent win probability respectively, though Lindor's RE24 of 0.0 reflected limited run-environment impact despite his favorable timing. Wilson finished as the top Phillies contributor at plus-5.3 percent and led all position players with a RE24 of plus-1.4, a modest bright spot in a losing effort. Ottavino added plus-2.4 percent in relief, and Brooks Raley chipped in plus-0.6 percent to close things out for New York.