Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins closed out September 30 at PNC Park with a 7-3 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates, handing the home side a final win probability of zero percent after entering the night at a near-even 48 percent by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Miami spread 14 hits across the contest, pulling away in stages rather than through any single outburst, while Pittsburgh's 12-hit effort never translated into the sustained offense needed to threaten the Marlins' lead.

The game's decisive swings came largely in the middle and late innings. Jazz Chisholm Jr. delivered the night's most visually striking blow in the top of the third, a home run off Quinn Priester that shifted win probability 10.7 percentage points in Miami's favor. Pittsburgh briefly answered in the bottom of the fifth, where Endy Rodriguez's single off A.J. Puk represented the Pirates' best individual play of the night at plus 12.1 percent, and Ke'Bryan Hayes added a double in the same frame for another 8.1-point swing. But Miami reasserted itself in the top of the sixth, when Jorge Soler's fielder's choice off Dauri Moreta pushed the needle another 9.9 points toward the visitors, and Josh Bell's double in the top of the eighth off Jose E. Hernandez delivered the largest single batting-team swing of the game at plus 14.7 percent, effectively closing the door.

By the DiamondIQ model's accounting, Soler finished as Miami's most valuable offensive contributor at plus 14.1 percent WPA and plus 2.1 RE24, followed by Bell at plus 11.5 percent WPA and Rodriguez at plus 10.6 percent. On the mound, Matt Moore led Miami's pitching staff with plus 8.8 percent WPA, with David Robertson adding plus 7.5 percent in support. Pittsburgh received no comparable stabilizing performance from its bullpen, and the Marlins walked away with a convincing four-run final margin.