Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 1 |
| MIL | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs handed the Milwaukee Brewers a 10-6 defeat at American Family Field on September 30, 2023, overcoming a three-run deficit in the first inning to pull away decisively. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving Milwaukee a 59% chance of winning at home, but that edge evaporated quickly as Chicago seized control early and never relinquished it. The Cubs plated six runs in the first inning alone and added two more in the fourth, one in the fifth, and one in the sixth to build an insurmountable cushion, finishing with 13 hits against Milwaukee's 12.
The decisive moments came in clusters. Alexander Canario's strikeout in the top of the first against Eric Lauer swung win probability 12.4 points in Chicago's favor, a signal that the Cubs were working Lauer effectively from the jump. Cody Bellinger's double off Lauer in the top of the fourth was the single largest positive swing of the game at plus 13.0 win-probability points, pushing the DiamondIQ model's estimate firmly toward a Cubs victory. Canario returned to deliver again in the fifth, ripping a triple off Trevor Megill for another 11.2-point swing. The Brewers' most consequential blow came in the bottom of the second, when Blake Perkins connected for a home run off Jordan Wicks that moved Milwaukee's probability 11.3 points upward, but the Cubs' offense had already built too large a margin for it to matter.
Canario was the standout performer of the night, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus 28.1% and a RE24 of plus 1.9, the best marks among all batters. Ian Happ contributed plus 17.2% WPA and plus 1.4 RE24, while Perkins led Milwaukee's offensive effort with plus 12.0% WPA and plus 1.6 RE24 despite the loss. On the mound, Javier Assad paced Chicago's pitching staff with plus 16.7% WPA, supported by Jameson Taillon at plus 7.6% and Hayden Wesneski at plus 3.0%, a collective performance that kept the Brewers from mounting any meaningful late rally.