Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets closed out their home schedule with a dominant 11-4 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies on September 29, 2023, at Citi Field. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Mets a 45% chance of winning, but that figure climbed steadily toward a final estimate of 100% as New York buried the Phillies with an eight-run outburst across the second and third innings.

The decisive stretch began in the bottom of the second, when Francisco Alvarez launched a home run off Michael Plassmeyer that shifted win probability by 11.4 percentage points in New York's favor. Alvarez returned to the plate in the third and connected again off Plassmeyer, adding another 9.3-point swing. A Plassmeyer strikeout of Tim Locastro in the second had already contributed a 7.9-point positive swing for the Mets, reflecting how thoroughly New York controlled the at-bat sequence that inning. The Phillies responded in the top of the fourth when Kyle Schwarber hit a home run off Jose Quintana to generate a 7.0-point swing, briefly tightening the contest, but Francisco Lindor answered immediately in the bottom half with a home run off Plassmeyer that produced a 6.8-point shift and effectively sealed the outcome.

Alvarez finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer, totaling a WPA of plus 20.8% and an RE24 of plus 5.2, driven almost entirely by his two-homer performance against Plassmeyer. Lindor followed with a WPA of plus 11.6% and an RE24 of plus 2.8, while Schwarber led Philadelphia's contributors at plus 10.7% WPA and plus 1.9 RE24. On the pitching side, Quintana led Mets relievers with a WPA of plus 3.8%, holding Philadelphia in check over his appearances after Plassmeyer's early exit.