Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins erased a two-run deficit with a four-run eighth inning and held on to defeat the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-3 at PNC Park on September 29, 2023. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with Pittsburgh carrying a 49 percent pre-game win probability, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out as Miami's late rally proved decisive.

The turning point arrived in the top of the eighth inning against Pirates reliever Colin Selby, who surrendered the three most consequential offensive plays of the night. Jake Burger's single was the single most impactful batting play of the game from Miami's perspective, shifting win probability 22.0 percent in the Marlins' favor, while Josh Bell followed with a double that added another 17.6 percent. Jorge Soler then drew a walk that pushed the needle an additional 13.1 percent, as Miami systematically dismantled Pittsburgh's bullpen. Pittsburgh's best chance to respond came in the bottom of the eighth, when Endy Rodriguez grounded into a double play off David Robertson, a sequence that swung win probability 19.0 percent against the Pirates and effectively ended their rally before it started. Robertson was the most valuable pitcher on either side by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a 23.3 percent WPA contribution. In the ninth, Ke'Bryan Hayes grounded out against Tanner Scott to end what appeared a threatening moment, a play that paradoxically carried the largest single win-probability swing of the night at 31.6 percent given how tight the margin remained. Burger led all batters with a 26.7 percent WPA and a 1.2 RE24, with Hayes finishing at 28.9 percent WPA despite Pittsburgh's loss.