Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers walked off the Chicago Cubs 4-3 in ten innings on September 29, 2023, at American Family Field, completing a back-and-forth finish that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win climb from 60 percent before first pitch to 100 percent by game's end. Milwaukee held a 3-0 lead through four innings before both teams went scoreless until the fifth, when the Brewers pushed across three runs. Chicago mounted a comeback of its own, starting with Ian Happ's home run off Caleb Boushley in the top of the ninth, a swing that added 34.2 percent to the Cubs' win probability and briefly reset the tension. The Cubs carried that momentum into the tenth, where Christopher Morel drew a leadoff walk off Boushley, a seemingly routine plate appearance that nonetheless added 24.7 percent to Chicago's win probability as the automatic runner scenario took shape. Yan Gomes then struck out against Boushley, costing the Cubs 18.7 percent, and the rally stalled at one run, leaving the game knotted at three heading to the bottom half.

Milwaukee needed just one swing to end it. Carlos Santana laced a walk-off double off Jose Cuas in the bottom of the tenth, a hit worth 35.9 percent in win probability and the single most impactful batting play of the night. Santana finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 40.4 percent, with a RE24 of plus 1.5. Christopher Morel was nearly his equal, posting plus 39.3 percent WPA and a game-high plus 1.9 RE24, driven largely by his critical tenth-inning walk. Happ's plus 31.0 percent WPA underscored how close Chicago came to stealing the game. On the mound, Colin Rea led all pitchers with plus 17.4 percent WPA for Milwaukee, while Mark Leiter Jr. added plus 7.0 percent for Chicago, aided in part by Brice Turang grounding into a double play in the ninth, a sequence that cost Milwaukee 17.5 percent in win probability before the Brewers recovered to close it out.