Miami Marlins at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Miami Marlins 1-0 on September 28, 2023, at Citi Field in a tightly contested pitchers' duel that remained scoreless through seven innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with the Mets as a slight underdog, estimating a 48 percent pre-game home win probability, but that figure climbed to 100 percent by the final out as New York manufactured the game's only run in the bottom of the eighth.

The decisive moment came when Rafael Ortega laced a single off Andrew Nardi in the bottom of the eighth, a hit that shifted win probability by plus 13.4 percent and ultimately proved to be the game-winning blow. Miami had chances to respond, but Grant Hartwig shut the door in the top of the eighth, inducing a groundout from Josh Bell that swung win probability by minus 7.2 percent against the Marlins and following it with a strikeout of Jake Burger worth minus 6.8 percent. A Jon Berti hit by pitch off Hartwig had briefly offered Miami a spark in that same frame, adding plus 6.7 percent, but the threat dissolved without a run. Earlier, Berti's fifth-inning forceout off David Peterson had been the single most damaging play for Miami's chances, costing the Marlins 9.5 percent in win probability.

David Peterson led all pitchers with a plus 38.5 percent WPA contribution, and Jesús Luzardo was nearly as dominant at plus 32.8 percent, as the two combined to hold Miami to four hits across the contest. Grant Hartwig added plus 10.6 percent in his relief appearance. Among position players, Ortega topped New York's offensive contributors at plus 10.2 percent WPA and plus 0.4 RE24, while Bryan De La Cruz was the Marlins' most impactful bat at plus 7.3 percent WPA and plus 0.7 RE24, though his efforts went unrewarded in a losing cause. The Mets finished with five hits and no errors, just enough to secure the shutout victory.