New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees shut out the Toronto Blue Jays 6-0 at Rogers Centre on September 27, 2023, a result that erased what the DiamondIQ model had entering the night as a 58% home win probability for Toronto. The Yankees scored in three separate innings — the fourth, fifth, and seventh — and never allowed the Blue Jays to generate a meaningful threat against Gerrit Cole or the relievers who followed him.

The decisive sequence began in the fourth inning when Aaron Judge connected on a home run off José Berríos, a swing that shifted win probability by +17.5 percentage points in New York's favor and effectively began Toronto's collapse. Berríos surrendered another damaging blow in the fifth, a Giancarlo Stanton single that moved the needle an additional +12.8 points. Judge returned in the seventh with a second home run, this one off Trevor Richards, adding another +5.2 points. Toronto's most promising moment came in the second inning when Brandon Belt doubled off Gerrit Cole for a +4.5-point swing, but Matt Chapman's strikeout in the same frame erased that opportunity at -4.8 points, and the Blue Jays finished with just two hits on the night.

Judge led all position players with a combined +24.5% WPA and +3.8 RE24, his two home runs serving as the structural spine of the victory. Stanton contributed +10.3% WPA, while Belt's double was the lone Toronto bright spot at +3.3% WPA. On the mound, Gerrit Cole was the dominant force, finishing with +28.3% WPA as he held a Toronto lineup to near-silence throughout his outing. Jay Jackson and Génesis Cabrera each closed out the game without adding or subtracting from New York's win probability.