Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 7-6 on September 27, 2023, at Citizens Bank Park, in a game the DiamondIQ model opened with a 63 percent home win probability that ultimately closed at 100 percent. Pittsburgh struck first and struck hard, plating three runs in the top of the first and adding two more in the third to build a 5-0 lead, but Philadelphia answered with a pivotal four-run fourth inning that shifted the game's trajectory decisively in the Phillies' favor.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the fourth when Garrett Stubbs drove a home run off Johan Oviedo, a swing that added 23.3 percentage points to Philadelphia's win probability and served as the central turning point of the contest. The Phillies pushed further in the fifth on an Edmundo Sosa home run, again off Oviedo, worth 12.4 percentage points of win probability. Pittsburgh threatened in the top of the fifth when Jack Suwinski laced a triple off Ranger Suarez, a hit that swung win probability 13.4 points toward the Pirates, but the club could not fully capitalize. Bryce Harper then effectively sealed the outcome with an 18.0-point win-probability home run off Jose E. Hernandez in the bottom of the seventh, extending the Phillies' lead to its final margin.

Stubbs finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-28.0 and an RE24 of plus-2.1, while Harper added plus-24.8 WPA and plus-1.5 RE24 to round out the two most impactful offensive contributors. On the mound, Gregory Soto led Philadelphia's relief corps with plus-15.2 WPA, followed closely by Dylan Covey at plus-10.8 and Seranthony Dominguez at plus-10.7, a trio that preserved the narrow one-run advantage through the game's final frames.