San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the San Francisco Giants 5-2 in ten innings at Oracle Park on September 27, 2023, completing a comeback that swung decisively in the extra frame. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with the Giants holding a 53% win probability, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out as San Diego scored three runs in the top of the tenth to pull away.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the tenth, where Manny Machado delivered a single off John Brebbia that shifted win probability by 29.3 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game. Brett Sullivan followed with a groundout that nonetheless added another 16.4 percentage points in San Diego's favor, as the Padres pushed across multiple runs to build the cushion they needed. The foundation for the late push was laid by Garrett Cooper, who had provided the Padres' only lead at that point with a solo home run off Sean Manaea in the seventh inning worth 15.6 percentage points, and who further extended his influence with a double off Camilo Doval in the ninth worth 11.9 percentage points. San Francisco's lone moment of promise came in the fifth when Tyler Fitzgerald singled off Matt Waldron to account for an 11.1-point swing, though the Giants finished with three errors that repeatedly undermined their position.

Among individual performers, Machado led all batters with a cumulative WPA of plus-31.0 and an RE24 of plus-2.3, while Sullivan contributed plus-24.7 WPA and Cooper plus-22.5 WPA. On the pitching side, San Diego's bullpen was collectively the story of the final innings, with Camilo Doval posting plus-13.5 WPA, Robert Suarez adding plus-10.9, and Tyler Rogers contributing plus-10.6, a trio whose combined output helped the DiamondIQ model's estimate confirm the Padres as the clear aggressors down the stretch.