Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles closed out a dominant 5-1 victory over the Washington Nationals at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 27, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate had anticipated from the outset, with a 72 percent pre-game home win probability that climbed to a full 100 percent by the final out. Baltimore built its lead methodically, scoring in the third, fifth, and sixth innings while holding Washington off the board until a single run in the top of the fifth briefly offered the Nationals a foothold.

The most consequential sequence of the game centered on Adley Rutschman, whose third-inning home run off Patrick Corbin delivered a swing of plus 16.2 percent in win probability and set the tone for everything that followed. Rutschman returned to do further damage in the fifth, adding a single off Corbin that shifted the model's estimate another 10.4 percent in Baltimore's favor. Washington had momentarily countered in the top of that inning when Jake Alu singled off Grayson Rodriguez for a plus 9.9 percent swing, but Jordan Westburg drew a walk later in the fifth to push the probability further toward Baltimore, registering a plus 7.4 percent move. An earlier Nationals near-miss came in the second, when Jorge Mateo flew out off Corbin at a cost of 9.1 percent in win probability for the home side.

When accounting for overall win-probability contributions, Rutschman finished as the game's most impactful player at plus 25.0 percent WPA and plus 2.3 RE24, with Westburg adding plus 7.7 percent WPA and Alu contributing plus 6.9 percent despite playing for the losing side. On the mound, Danny Coulombe led Baltimore's relievers with plus 7.9 percent WPA, while Jacob Webb and Tyler Wells each posted positive contributions as the Orioles' staff completed a clean nine innings with no errors committed by either defense.