St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 3-2 on September 27, 2023, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 66 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent by game's end. Milwaukee's offense came to life in the sixth inning, when Rowdy Tellez reached on a fielder's choice off Zack Thompson to swing win probability by plus-18.9 percent, and Tyrone Taylor extended the advantage in the seventh with a double off Matthew Liberatore worth plus-16.0 percent in win-probability terms. St. Louis had opportunities to claw back but squandered them, most critically in the top of the eighth when Iván Herrera grounded into a double play off Andrew Chafin, a swing of minus-27.4 percent that effectively closed the door on the Cardinals' chances. Jordan Walker's flyout to end the ninth against Devin Williams, costing minus-13.5 percent in win probability, confirmed what the model had already made clear.

On the offensive side, Tellez finished as the game's most impactful bat with a plus-24.2 percent WPA and plus-1.7 RE24, while Taylor contributed plus-13.1 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24 to support the Milwaukee cause. Luken Baker also factored in with plus-12.6 percent WPA and plus-0.9 RE24. The Brewers' bullpen was equally decisive, with Devin Williams leading all pitchers at plus-15.2 percent WPA, Andrew Chafin adding plus-10.8 percent, and Joel Payamps contributing plus-8.3 percent. St. Louis finished with eight hits and an error to Milwaukee's seven hits and one error, but the Cardinals could not convert when the leverage was highest, leaving the Brewers to take a tightly contested two-run victory.