MLB Recap · September 26, 2023

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

NYY2
Final
TOR0

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
NYY000000002251
TOR000000000030

The Story

The New York Yankees shut out the Toronto Blue Jays 2-0 on September 26, 2023, at Rogers Centre, delivering all of their offense in a single ninth-inning burst against a Blue Jays team that the DiamondIQ model had entering the game with a 58% win probability. Through eight innings of scoreless baseball, Toronto appeared to be in control behind Kevin Gausman, who kept the Yankees offense in check while accumulating a team-high +33.4% WPA on the evening. The game remained a tense 0-0 stalemate until Austin Wells stepped to the plate against closer Jordan Romano in the top of the ninth and changed everything, launching a home run that swung win probability by +35.1%, the single most impactful play of the night, and giving New York the only runs it would need.

The Blue Jays had their own chances to break through but squandered them at critical moments. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. grounded into a double play in the bottom of the eighth against Jhony Brito, a play that shifted win probability by -11.3% and effectively extinguished Toronto's most threatening late-game sequence. Brito himself was one of three Yankees pitchers who kept the Blue Jays off the board, posting a +19.2% WPA, while Michael King matched Gausman nearly pitch for pitch with a +33.2% WPA of his own. In the bottom of the ninth, Daulton Varsho's flyout against Clay Holmes carried a +12.0% WPA swing from the batting team's perspective, reflecting just how slim Toronto's remaining hope had become before Holmes closed the door entirely.

Wells was the unambiguous offensive catalyst, finishing with a +28.5% WPA and +0.9 RE24 on the strength of that decisive ninth-inning blast. Varsho led Toronto's positional players at +11.0% WPA despite the loss, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa contributed a quiet +6.2% WPA for New York. Gausman's strong outing ultimately went unrewarded, as the Blue Jays managed only three hits on the night and could not find a way to support him with any run production against a Yankees pitching staff that proved equally stingy across nine innings.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025NYY bats firstFinalTOR win %NYY win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 58.4% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Austin Wells Home Run
Top 9th · off Jordan Romano
+35.1%
Daulton Varsho Flyout
Bot 9th · off Clay Holmes
+12.0%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Grounded Into DP
Bot 8th · off Jhony Brito
-11.3%
DJ LeMahieu Grounded Into DP
Top 6th · off Kevin Gausman
-10.6%
Oswaldo Cabrera Fielders Choice Out
Top 7th · off Kevin Gausman
-9.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Austin Wells+28.5%+0.9 RE24
Daulton Varsho+11.0%-0.4 RE24
Isiah Kiner-Falefa+6.2%-0.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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