MLB Recap · September 26, 2023

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

KC3
Final
DET6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
KC010001001381
DET00000204-671

The Story

The Detroit Tigers closed out their September 26 home date with a 6-3 victory over the Kansas City Royals at Comerica Park, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected well from the start, with Detroit carrying a 67 percent pre-game win probability that climbed to a certainty by the final out. The game was largely a pitching duel through five innings, with Kansas City scratching across a run in the second and Detroit answering with two in the sixth before pulling away decisively in the eighth.

The pivotal sequence began in the bottom of the sixth, when Spencer Torkelson laced a double off Anthony Veneziano that shifted win probability by plus-23.8 percent, the single largest swing of the game. Kansas City's Bobby Witt Jr. had given his team a momentary lift in the top of that same inning with a triple off Reese Olson worth plus-10.5 percent, but the Royals could not convert that opportunity into lasting damage. The eighth inning settled the matter. Taylor Clarke allowed back-to-back home runs to Akil Baddoo and Parker Meadows, worth plus-18.8 and plus-12.0 percent respectively, pushing Detroit's four-run frame out of reach. Witt Jr.'s grounded into double play to open the top of the eighth, off Jason Foley, cost Kansas City 14.9 percent in win probability and effectively ended any comeback hopes.

Torkelson led all batters with a plus-20.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.5, while Baddoo and Meadows contributed plus-18.8 and plus-15.9 percent respectively, each posting a RE24 of plus-1.0 or better. On the mound, Zack Greinke was the game's most impactful arm, generating plus-34.4 percent WPA for Detroit, with Jason Foley and Tyler Holton adding plus-10.6 and plus-10.4 percent in relief to preserve the win.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025KC bats firstFinalDET win %KC win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 66.6% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Bot 6th · off Anthony Veneziano
+23.8%
Akil Baddoo Home Run
Bot 8th · off Taylor Clarke
+18.8%
Bobby Witt Jr. Grounded Into DP
Top 8th · off Jason Foley
-14.9%
Parker Meadows Home Run
Bot 8th · off Taylor Clarke
+12.0%
Bobby Witt Jr. Triple
Top 6th · off Reese Olson
+10.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Spencer Torkelson+20.8%+1.5 RE24
Akil Baddoo+18.8%+1.0 RE24
Parker Meadows+15.9%+1.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
Open Game Center →