Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Cleveland Guardians 11-7 at Progressive Field on September 26, 2023, in a game that swung decisively in Cincinnati's favor through a pair of pivotal middle innings. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with an even 50 percent home win probability for Cleveland, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out as the Reds outscored the Guardians 8-1 from the third inning onward. Cleveland built an early edge in the second when Bo Naylor's home run off Hunter Greene shifted win probability 19.1 percent toward the Guardians, and Kole Calhoun followed with another home run off Greene in the third for an identical 19.1 percent swing, giving Cleveland what appeared to be a comfortable foothold.

Cincinnati answered emphatically in the top of the third, where Spencer Steer's triple off Lucas Giolito added 14.2 percent in win probability and Christian Encarnacion-Strand's home run off Giolito added another 13.9 percent, effectively neutralizing Cleveland's advantage in a single frame. The decisive blow came in the fifth inning when Luke Maile singled off James Karinchak, a hit that swung win probability 23.3 percent toward Cincinnati and proved to be the game's single most impactful offensive play. The Reds tacked on three more runs that inning and added two in the ninth to pull away for good.

Among individual performers, Maile finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 27.3 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.4, while Elly De La Cruz led all players in RE24 at plus 3.3 to go with a plus 24.3 percent WPA contribution. Bo Naylor was Cleveland's most productive hitter at plus 16.4 percent WPA and plus 2.9 RE24, though it was not enough to overcome Cincinnati's bullpen, which shut the Guardians down over the final innings. Fernando Cruz led the Reds' relief corps with a plus 16.3 percent WPA, followed by Lucas Sims at plus 13.3 percent, as Cincinnati's pitching staff preserved the four-run margin through nine.