Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies walked off the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-2 in ten innings on September 26, 2023, at Citizens Bank Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Philadelphia win climbing from 63% before first pitch all the way to 100% after Johan Rojas ended it in the tenth. The game was scoreless through five before Brandon Marsh broke through with a home run off Mitch Keller in the bottom of the sixth, a swing worth 13.8% in win probability that gave the Phillies a 2-0 advantage. Pittsburgh answered with Bryan Reynolds connecting off Aaron Nola in the top of the seventh for a 13.2% swing, then Henry Davis delivered the most consequential Pirates blow of regulation, a home run off Craig Kimbrel in the eighth that added 19.0% to Pittsburgh's win probability and knotted the game at two heading to the ninth.

Extra innings belonged entirely to Rojas, whose single off David Bednar in the bottom of the tenth produced the largest single-play win-probability swing of the night at plus 41.4%, finishing him as the game's top batter at plus 38.7% WPA and plus 1.3 RE24. Davis finished second among position players at plus 26.4% WPA despite his team ultimately falling short. On the pitching side, Aaron Nola led all arms at plus 14.3% WPA, aided in part by Liover Peguero grounding into a double play in the top of the sixth that cost Pittsburgh 10.6% in win probability and blunted a potential rally. José Alvarado and Ryan Borucki contributed plus 13.5% and plus 12.0% WPA respectively out of the Philadelphia bullpen, helping preserve the game long enough for Rojas to deliver the decisive blow.