MLB Recap · September 26, 2023

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

LAD1
Final
COL4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAD000001000190
COL30000010-490

The Story

The Colorado Rockies defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-1 on September 26, 2023, at Coors Field, a result that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Colorado victory climbing from just 30 percent before first pitch all the way to certainty by the final out. The Rockies struck immediately, plating three runs in the bottom of the first inning against Ryan Pepiot to seize control early, and they never relinquished it. Colorado added an insurance run in the seventh to bring the final margin to three, while the Dodgers managed their lone run in the sixth on a day when their offense generated nine hits but consistently failed to convert them into scoring opportunities.

The game's most consequential individual moment came in the second inning, when James Outman grounded into a double play off Chase Anderson, a sequence that swung win probability 15.2 percentage points against Los Angeles and effectively buried any early momentum the Dodgers might have manufactured. Outman also struck out in the sixth against Brent Suter in a plate appearance that shifted probability 9.9 points in Colorado's favor, while Enrique Hernandez's fielder's choice out in that same frame cost the Dodgers another 10.2 points. On the Colorado side, Sean Bouchard's flyout in the first registered a 11.6-point swing in the Rockies' favor, as Pepiot's inability to escape the inning cleanly proved decisive.

Nolan Jones led all position players with a 21.1-percent WPA contribution and a RE24 of plus-1.2, while Jason Heyward added 10.5 percent WPA and plus-0.9 RE24 for the Rockies. On the mound, Chase Anderson was the game's dominant force, posting a remarkable plus-35.1 percent WPA to anchor the Colorado pitching staff, with Jake Bird contributing an additional plus-13.6 percent in relief. The DiamondIQ model leaned toward the Dodgers entering the game, but the Rockies' first-inning outburst and Anderson's performance made the final result feel inevitable well before the later innings unfolded.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAD bats firstFinalCOL win %LAD win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 29.7% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

James Outman Grounded Into DP
Top 2nd · off Chase Anderson
-15.2%
Sean Bouchard Flyout
Bot 1st · off Ryan Pepiot
+11.6%
Nolan Jones Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Ryan Pepiot
+10.8%
Enrique Hernández Fielders Choice Out
Top 6th · off Brent Suter
-10.2%
James Outman Strikeout
Top 6th · off Brent Suter
+9.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Nolan Jones+21.1%+1.2 RE24
Sean Bouchard+11.0%-0.7 RE24
Jason Heyward+10.5%+0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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