Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves rallied past the Chicago Cubs 7-6 on September 26, 2023, at Truist Park, overcoming a three-run deficit to secure the victory. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with a 66 percent home win probability for Atlanta, and that estimate climbed to 100 percent by the final out. The Cubs jumped in front early, scoring twice in the second and third innings and adding a run in the sixth, but Atlanta answered with a three-run sixth and steadily clawed back from there.

The two swings that most defined the game's outcome both came from Sean Murphy, though in opposite directions. In the bottom of the eighth, a fielding error on Drew Smyly shifted win probability by +35.8 percent in Atlanta's favor, representing the single largest win-probability swing of the night and the moment the DiamondIQ model locked in a Braves victory. Ronald Acuña Jr. had delivered the emotional high point an inning earlier, his home run off Javier Assad adding +22.5 percent in win probability and pulling Atlanta to within striking distance. On the Cubs' side, Seiya Suzuki's third-inning triple off Bryce Elder was Chicago's most consequential offensive play at +15.2 percent, fueling what looked like a comfortable cushion that ultimately did not hold.

By win probability added, Murphy finished as the game's top overall contributor at +27.1 percent despite his second-inning strikeout costing the Braves 11.5 percent, reflecting how decisively the eighth-inning error played in his ledger. Acuña followed at +19.4 percent, and Cody Bellinger posted +16.2 percent for Chicago in a losing effort. Among pitchers, Justin Steele led all arms at +18.8 percent, with Raisel Iglesias at +15.2 percent and Brad Hand at +11.6 percent rounding out the top three on the mound.