Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs held off the Colorado Rockies 4-3 on September 24, 2023, at Wrigley Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 70% pre-game home win probability to 100% by the final out. The game turned decisively in the bottom of the sixth inning when Patrick Wisdom launched a home run off Ty Blach, a swing that added 25.7% in win probability and erased whatever foothold Colorado had built after Brendan Rodgers had given the Rockies a temporary lift in the third with his own home run off Jordan Wicks, a play that swung win probability 18.5% in Colorado's favor at the time.

Chicago's three-run sixth proved to be the definitive frame, as the Cubs scored all three of their inning runs to overcome a 2-1 deficit and push ahead for good. The Cubs' bullpen trio of Julian Merryweather, Jose Cuas, and Daniel Palencia combined to preserve the lead down the stretch, with Merryweather contributing the highest WPA among pitchers at plus-15.2%. Colorado mounted a ninth-inning threat that briefly kept the outcome in question — Elias Díaz drew a walk off Merryweather that added 15.2% in win probability for the Rockies — but Elehuris Montero's lineout and Ryan McMahon's strikeout deflated the rally, costing Colorado 14.6% and 13.5% in win probability respectively.

Among individual performers, Wisdom led all batters with a WPA of plus-22.8% and a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Nolan Jones was nearly as impactful at plus-22.5% WPA and plus-1.4 RE24. Díaz was the most productive Rockies contributor by WPA at plus-15.1%, though his RE24 of essentially zero reflected the ultimately fruitless nature of his on-base work. Chicago's five-hit, no-error performance was enough to hold off Colorado's five-hit, no-error night on a game where the late innings defined everything.