Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-2 on September 24, 2023, at Great American Ball Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 57% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. Pittsburgh held a 2-0 lead through five innings after Jack Suwinski's fifth-inning home run off Brandon Williamson swung win probability 12.3% in the Pirates' favor, but Cincinnati answered with a four-run stretch from the sixth inning through the eighth that ultimately decided the game.

The decisive sequence belonged almost entirely to TJ Friedl. His home run off Quinn Priester in the bottom of the sixth tied and then flipped the game, adding 22.7% in win probability, the single largest swing of the night. Friedl followed that with an RBI single off Jose E. Hernandez in the seventh, adding another 15.4%, giving Cincinnati the lead it would not surrender. Christian Encarnacion-Strand then extended the margin with a home run off Andre Jackson in the eighth worth 13.6% in win probability, effectively closing the door on any Pittsburgh comeback. Henry Davis had a chance to bring the Pirates back in the top of the eighth but struck out against Alexis Díaz, a swing of negative 9.8% that snuffed out the rally.

Friedl finished as the game's dominant offensive performer at plus-41.5% total WPA with a RE24 of plus-3.3, while Jonathan India contributed plus-12.0% WPA and Encarnacion-Strand added plus-11.9%. On the mound, the Cincinnati bullpen was equally decisive, with Alexis Díaz leading relievers at plus-10.8% WPA, followed by Sam Moll at plus-9.8% and Lucas Sims at plus-8.3%. Pittsburgh managed seven hits but the lone error and an inability to generate offense after the fifth inning allowed Cincinnati to pull away cleanly.