San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| LAD | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Los Angeles Dodgers walked off the San Francisco Giants 3-2 in ten innings on September 24, 2023, at Dodger Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 66 percent pre-game home win probability to a final certainty of 100 percent. The Giants had clawed back into a game that looked to be slipping away, but Los Angeles ultimately controlled the late innings through its bullpen, which proved to be the difference in a tightly contested rivalry game.
The decisive swing of momentum came in the tenth inning, where the Giants briefly appeared poised to extend their lead. Thairo Estrada delivered a single off Shelby Miller that added 21.9 percent to San Francisco's win probability, representing the single largest win-probability swing of the night. However, Patrick Bailey then grounded into a double play off Miller, a sequence that cost the Giants 18.2 percent in win probability and ultimately stranded the threat. That back-to-back sequence defined San Francisco's offensive night, which also featured a LaMonte Wade Jr. home run off Lance Lynn in the fifth inning — a swing worth 18.6 percent in win probability and the play that gave the Giants their two runs. Tyler Fitzgerald's flyout to end the ninth, recorded off Evan Phillips, had already cost San Francisco 20.8 percent and preserved the tie heading to extras.
On the mound, Luke Jackson was the standout performer by the DiamondIQ model's measure, contributing 22.2 percent in WPA for Los Angeles, with Evan Phillips adding 13.5 percent and Brusdar Graterol contributing 10.6 percent as the Dodgers bullpen collectively shut the Giants down over the final frames. Among position players, Kolten Wong's groundout in the bottom of the tenth registered as a positive 19.5 percent WPA play, a reflection of how the walk-off situation unfolded in Los Angeles's favor. Wade finished as the top Giants performer with 16.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.2, while J.D. Martinez contributed 15.6 percent WPA for the Dodgers despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.2.