St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| SD | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | - | 12 | 18 | 0 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres routed the St. Louis Cardinals 12-2 at Petco Park on September 24, 2023, turning what opened as a competitive game into a dominant performance. The DiamondIQ model entered with a 60 percent home win probability for San Diego and closed at 100 percent, reflecting a Padres offense that produced 18 hits without committing an error against a Cardinals defense that made two.
The game's most consequential sequence unfolded in the first two innings against Cardinals starter Drew Rom. Juan Soto delivered a home run in the bottom of the first that shifted win probability 4.3 points in San Diego's favor, and he followed with a flyout in the bottom of the second that added another 7.1 points, the single largest win-probability swing of the game. An Irving Lopez strikeout in the top of the second did return 6.8 points to St. Louis, but a Ha-Seong Kim error in the bottom half nudged the Padres another 4.3 points ahead, and a Garrett Cooper strikeout of Rom contributed another 4.3 points to San Diego's growing advantage. The Cardinals never recovered, scoring their only two runs in the seventh against a Padres bullpen that had long since rendered the outcome moot.
Individually, Soto led all players with a combined win-probability contribution of plus-12.4 percent and a run expectancy added of plus-2.4, anchoring the San Diego offensive effort. Ha-Seong Kim added plus-5.3 percent WPA and plus-2.2 RE24, while Xander Bogaerts contributed plus-5.0 percent WPA. On the mound, Michael Wacha was the game's top pitcher by win-probability contribution at plus-10.6 percent, as the Cardinals lineup managed only six hits across nine innings.