Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins handled the Milwaukee Brewers convincingly at loanDepot park on September 24, 2023, winning 6-1 behind a dominant offensive performance and steady pitching. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with the two clubs essentially even at 49% for Miami, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100% as the Marlins built an early and insurmountable lead.

The decisive stretch came in the third and fifth innings. Jon Berti had already given Miami a 1-0 edge with a second-inning home run off Freddy Peralta, a swing that shifted win probability 7.6 points in the Marlins' favor. The third inning proved more damaging, as Josh Bell connected for a home run off Peralta as well, a blow that carried a 9.4-point win-probability swing and pushed Miami ahead by a widening margin. Milwaukee mounted a brief response in the top of the fifth when Tyrone Taylor singled off Edward Cabrera to produce a 7.7-point swing in the Brewers' favor, but Christian Yelich's ground into a double play two batters later wiped out 8.1 points of Milwaukee's win probability and ended the threat. Berti then answered in the bottom of the fifth with his second home run of the game, this one off Julio Teheran, adding another 9.0-point swing that effectively closed the door.

Berti finished as the game's most impactful performer by a wide margin, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-15.7 and an RE24 of plus-2.3 across his two-homer effort. Bell contributed plus-10.8 WPA and plus-1.0 RE24, while Jazz Chisholm Jr. added plus-7.5 WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.7. On the pitching side, Matt Moore led Miami's staff with plus-8.1 WPA, followed by Cabrera at plus-5.9 despite surrendering the Taylor single, reflecting how effectively he limited the broader damage in that inning.