Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates outlasted the Cincinnati Reds 13-12 on September 23, 2023, at Great American Ball Park in a game that swung wildly before the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cincinnati victory collapsed from a 57 percent pre-game home win probability to zero. Pittsburgh had trailed 12-8 entering the sixth inning, then scored five runs in the sixth, three in the seventh, and four in the eighth to seize control. Ji Hwan Bae's double off Alexis Díaz in the top of the eighth was the single most consequential Pittsburgh swing, adding 17.0 percent to the Pirates' win probability and extending a lead that ultimately proved decisive. Bae finished as the game's top performer by WPA among batters, accumulating a 26.7 percent win-probability contribution and a RE24 of plus-4.3.

The bottom of the ninth provided the game's most dramatic sequence, though Pittsburgh's closer Carmen Mlodzinski navigated it successfully. TJ Friedl's double added 21.4 percent to Cincinnati's win probability and Jonathan India's flyout added another 19.0 percent in win-probability terms by moving runners into scoring position, but Mlodzinski closed the door by striking out Elly De La Cruz, a swing that erased 25.9 percent of Cincinnati's remaining win probability and ended the game. That strikeout represented the single largest win-probability shift of the entire contest. Earlier, Tyler Stephenson's groundout into a double play in the bottom of the eighth had cost Cincinnati 16.6 percent win probability, effectively stalling a potential Reds rally at a critical moment. Friedl finished with a team-high 38.3 percent WPA for Cincinnati despite the loss, while India added 28.8 percent.