Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Cincinnati Reds 7-5 on September 22, 2023, at Great American Ball Park, overcoming a Cincinnati squad that entered as a 58% favorite according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Pittsburgh built its advantage through a pair of decisive blows in the sixth inning, when Endy Rodríguez connected for a home run off Buck Farmer to swing win probability 14.6 points in the Pirates' favor, followed almost immediately by Jared Triolo's solo shot off the same pitcher, adding another 13.8 points. The Reds responded in the bottom half of that same inning when TJ Friedl launched a home run off Hunter Stratton that swung win probability 28.7 points toward Cincinnati and briefly threatened to erase Pittsburgh's lead, keeping the contest very much alive heading into the late innings.

The Reds, however, could not sustain that momentum against Pittsburgh's bullpen. Carmen Mlodzinski delivered the most impactful pitching performance of the night, contributing 23.3 points of win probability to Pittsburgh's cause, highlighted by Jonathan India grounding into a double play in the eighth inning that shifted the win probability 24.2 points away from Cincinnati. David Bednar closed the door in the ninth, inducing a game-ending double play off the bat of Christian Encarnacion-Strand that swung win probability 23.1 points toward Pittsburgh. Fernando Cruz and Ryan Borucki also contributed to the bullpen effort, adding 13.3 and 9.7 points of win probability respectively. Despite finishing as the single most impactful individual by WPA at plus 42.1 points with a RE24 of plus 3.0, Friedl's heroics were not enough for Cincinnati. Ke'Bryan Hayes led Pittsburgh's offensive contributors with plus 20.3 points of win probability and a RE24 of plus 1.9, with Bryan Reynolds adding plus 16.7 points and a RE24 of plus 1.3.