San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the San Francisco Giants 7-2 on September 21, 2023, at Dodger Stadium, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected throughout, with the Dodgers entering at 66% pre-game home win probability and closing at 100% as Los Angeles held San Francisco to just three hits and committed no errors against the Giants' two.

The game's decisive swings came in the middle innings. J.D. Martinez delivered the first major blow in the bottom of the fourth, connecting on a home run off Kyle Harrison that added 10.5% to the Dodgers' win probability, and Harrison himself finished as the second-most impactful pitcher of the night by WPA at plus-8.5%. The Giants responded with a promising fifth-inning sequence when Tyler Fitzgerald drew a walk off Emmet Sheehan that swung win probability 11.0% in San Francisco's favor, and Joc Pederson followed in the sixth with a home run off Alex Vesia worth 13.8%, briefly keeping the Giants within reach. However, the comeback stalled dramatically in the top of the seventh when Wilmer Flores popped out against Ryan Brasier, a play that shifted win probability 13.5% back toward Los Angeles, and Enrique Hernández added to the Dodger cushion later that inning with a strikeout by Luke Jackson worth 10.6% from the home team's perspective.

The standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics were spread across both sides despite the lopsided outcome. Fitzgerald led all position players with a plus-16.3% WPA and plus-1.3 RE24 in a losing effort, while Martinez paced the Dodgers at plus-12.2% WPA and led all batters with a plus-1.5 RE24. Hernández contributed plus-10.9% WPA for Los Angeles. Among pitchers, Brasier was the most valuable reliever of the night at plus-10.4% WPA, with Kelly adding plus-4.5% in support.