Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins overcame a two-run deficit to defeat the Cincinnati Reds 5-3 at Great American Ball Park on September 20, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cincinnati victory standing at 52% before first pitch and collapsing to 0% by the final out. The Reds held leads through six innings, posting single runs in the third and fourth, but the Twins began chipping away in the seventh when Willi Castro delivered a home run off Hunter Greene that swung win probability 12.7 points in Minnesota's favor. Edouard Julien added a single off Ian Gibaut in the eighth for another 13.0-point swing, and by the time the Twins came to bat in the ninth trailing 3-2, the game was still very much in the balance.

The ninth inning proved decisive and swift. Jorge Polanco laced a single off Sam Moll that shifted win probability by 39.5 points, the single largest swing of the game, and Kyle Farmer followed with a single off Alexis Díaz that added another 31.7 points, the two hits combining to effectively end Cincinnati's chances and account for a Minnesota three-run rally that sealed the 5-3 final. Spencer Steer's forceout off Griffin Jax in the bottom of the ninth generated a 12.0-point swing for Cincinnati but came too late to alter the outcome.

By the WPA and RE24 measures tracked by the DiamondIQ model, Kyle Farmer led all position players at plus-25.1% WPA and plus-0.5 RE24, with Jorge Polanco close behind at plus-24.8% WPA and plus-0.4 RE24. Willi Castro posted the highest RE24 among batters at plus-0.9 to go with his plus-19.0% WPA. On the pitching side, Hunter Greene was the most valuable arm by WPA at plus-22.4%, keeping the Reds in contention deep into the game before the bullpen faltered, while Ian Gibaut's minus-3.9% WPA made him the most costly reliever of the night for Cincinnati.