Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres held off the Colorado Rockies 3-2 at Petco Park on September 20, 2023, completing a tight win that was decided almost entirely in the seventh inning. The Padres had entered the game as comfortable favorites, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate placing San Diego's pre-game win probability at 66 percent, and that edge proved well-founded despite a game that remained close deep into the late innings.

Colorado struck first with two runs in the top of the first, but San Diego answered with one of its own to keep pace at 2-1. The game's decisive sequence came in the bottom of the seventh against Rockies reliever Justin Lawrence. Matthew Batten opened the rally with a single that shifted win probability 11.5 percentage points in San Diego's favor, and Luis Campusano followed with another single that moved the needle a further 14.7 percentage points, the single largest swing of the evening. Those two hits powered the two-run frame that gave San Diego a 3-2 lead and, effectively, the ballgame. Chase Anderson was the game's most impactful pitcher by win probability, contributing 39.0 WP to the Padres' cause, while Josh Hader closed things out in the ninth with a 15.2 WP contribution despite surrendering a single to Brenton Doyle that briefly offered Colorado a 10.6 percent probability boost. Brendan Rodgers followed with a flyout that collapsed that window by 12.7 points, and Hader finished the job to seal the result. The DiamondIQ model's final estimate settled at 100 percent for San Diego.