Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies held on to defeat the Atlanta Braves 6-5 in ten innings at Truist Park on September 20, 2023, overcoming a late Atlanta rally to claim a road victory. The DiamondIQ model had entered the game with a 63% pre-game win probability favoring the home team, a figure that reflected Atlanta's standing — yet by the final out, that estimate had swung entirely to zero in Philadelphia's favor.

The decisive moment came in the top of the tenth inning, when Bryson Stott delivered a double off A.J. Minter that shifted the win probability by 47.1 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game. That hit supplied the margin Philadelphia ultimately needed. Earlier, Nick Castellanos had provided crucial separation in the top of the fourth with a home run off Bryce Elder, a swing worth 14.8 percentage points. Atlanta answered in the bottom of the eighth with back-to-back contributions from Marcell Ozuna, whose double off Gregory Soto generated a 25.9-point swing, and Austin Riley, whose single off Jeff Hoffman added another 16.5 points, cutting the Philadelphia lead and setting up the extra-inning finish.

On the individual ledger, Stott finished as the game's top batting contributor at plus 42.7% WPA and plus 1.2 RE24, while Riley was close behind at plus 34.5% WPA despite ending on a pop out to Matt Strahm in the bottom of the tenth — a moment that swung 31.6 points back toward Philadelphia and sealed the outcome. Ozuna also posted plus 26.2% WPA and plus 1.0 RE24. On the mound, Aaron Nola led Philadelphia's pitching staff at plus 25.2% WPA, supported by Raisel Iglesias at plus 13.5% and José Alvarado at plus 8.8%, a collective effort that proved just enough to preserve the one-run road win.