MLB Recap · September 20, 2023

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

TOR6
Final
NYY1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TOR001000023690
NYY000000001150

The Story

The Toronto Blue Jays shut out the New York Yankees through eight innings and pulled away late to win 6-1 at Yankee Stadium on September 20, 2023, swinging the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a New York victory from 48 percent before first pitch all the way to zero by the final out. Toronto broke the scoreless tie in the third inning, when Bo Bichette singled off Michael King to generate a shift of plus-10.2 percent in win probability. The Blue Jays added nothing more until the eighth, when the game opened up decisively against the Yankees bullpen. Spencer Horwitz drew a walk off Tommy Kahnle that moved Toronto's win probability by plus-12.9 percent, and Whit Merrifield followed with a walk off Ian Hamilton worth plus-8.6 percent. Toronto scored twice in that frame and pushed three more across in the ninth to close the scoring at 6-1.

The standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's win-probability metrics were spread across both sides of the ball. Merrifield led Toronto's position players at plus-11.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.3, while Horwitz finished at plus-8.2 percent WPA with the game's highest RE24 among hitters at plus-1.8. Bichette added plus-7.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.0, anchoring the earlier offensive contribution. New York's lone bright spot came in the bottom of the sixth, when Austin Wells doubled off Kevin Gausman to generate plus-6.4 percent for the home side, and Giancarlo Stanton's pop out in the third against Gausman represented a swing of minus-5.6 percent that extinguished an early Yankees threat.

On the mound, Kevin Gausman was the story for Toronto, finishing as the game's top pitcher by WPA at plus-30.2 percent, limiting meaningful New York offense deep into the contest. Michael King posted plus-23.5 percent WPA in relief for the Yankees, keeping the deficit manageable for stretches, while Chad Green contributed plus-9.7 percent WPA out of the New York bullpen. The Blue Jays' nine hits against five allowed by New York reflected a one-sided offensive performance that matched the model's final assessment of the outcome.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TOR bats firstFinalNYY win %TOR win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 48.1% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Top 8th · off Tommy Kahnle
+12.9%
Bo Bichette Single
Top 3rd · off Michael King
+10.2%
Top 8th · off Ian Hamilton
+8.6%
Austin Wells Double
Bot 6th · off Kevin Gausman
+6.4%
Giancarlo Stanton Pop Out
Bot 3rd · off Kevin Gausman
-5.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Whit Merrifield+11.9%+1.3 RE24
Spencer Horwitz+8.2%+1.8 RE24
Bo Bichette+7.2%+1.0 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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