Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres walked off the Colorado Rockies 2-0 on September 19, 2023 at Petco Park, with all the scoring compressed into the final inning of a tense, low-run contest. The DiamondIQ model entered the game assigning the Padres a 65 percent home win probability, and after eight shutout innings that number had drifted with each stranded opportunity before reaching 100 percent at the final out.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the ninth when Xander Bogaerts lifted a walk-off home run off Tyler Kinley, a swing that added 42.9 percent win probability in a single instant and served as the largest win-probability swing of the night. The Padres needed that burst of offense because their own lineup had repeatedly squandered chances earlier in the game. Jurickson Profar grounded into a double play in the eighth inning off Justin Lawrence, costing the Padres 25.0 percent win probability, and earlier in the sixth his lineout off Gavin Hollowell cost another 15.7 percent. Luis Campusano's fielder's choice out in the eighth compounded the frustration. On the Colorado side, Elias Díaz grounded into a double play off Josh Hader to open the ninth, a sequence that cost the Rockies 19.7 percent win probability and set the stage for Bogaerts.

Beyond his walk-off, Bogaerts finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 39.1 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.5, while Nolan Jones and Juan Soto contributed plus 11.8 and plus 9.8 percent respectively. On the mound, Blake Snell led all pitchers with plus 30.0 percent WPA, just edging Colorado starter Ryan Feltner at plus 29.6 percent, a figure that reflected how effectively Feltner kept San Diego off the board through his time on the mound. Gavin Hollowell added plus 15.3 percent in relief. The Padres managed only five hits but needed just one to matter.