Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Minnesota Twins 7-3 at Great American Ball Park on September 18, 2023, handing Minnesota a road loss that was largely settled by the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with Cincinnati holding a 54% pre-game win probability and closed at 100% as the Reds steadily pulled away. The decisive blow came in the bottom of the fourth, when Will Benson connected on a home run off Joe Ryan that swung win probability by 18.6 percentage points, representing the single largest leverage moment of the game. The Reds had already built a cushion in the second inning, where a Noelvi Marte single off Ryan moved the needle 9.4 percentage points in Cincinnati's favor as part of a two-run frame.

Minnesota did not go quietly. Royce Lewis answered with a solo home run off Connor Phillips in the top of the fourth, a swing worth 10.4 percentage points that briefly tightened the game, and Alex Kirilloff added another solo shot off Phillips in the seventh for an 8.6-point swing. But Cincinnati matched Kirilloff's response almost immediately, with Joey Votto delivering a single off Dallas Keuchel in the bottom of the seventh that added 5.9 percentage points and helped the Reds push their lead back out to an insurmountable margin with three more runs in that frame.

Benson finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-18.5%, paired with a RE24 of plus-1.6, reflecting the outsized run-environment value of his home run. Marte contributed plus-10.4% WPA and plus-1.0 RE24 to support the Cincinnati attack. On the pitching side, Connor Phillips led Cincinnati's staff with a plus-10.9% WPA despite allowing both Minnesota home runs, as his overall effectiveness limited the damage enough to keep the Reds firmly in control throughout.