Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Colorado Rockies 11-9 on September 18, 2023, at Petco Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 65 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent as San Diego built an insurmountable advantage through the middle innings. The Padres scored in five of the first five frames, including a two-run second and a three-run third, while Colorado starter Ty Blach absorbed the brunt of the damage across multiple big swings.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the third, where Luis Campusano's home run off Blach delivered the single largest win-probability shift of the game, adding 28.7 percent to San Diego's chances and effectively separating the two clubs. That same inning, an Xander Bogaerts double off Blach added another 6.8 percent. Garrett Cooper had already set the tone in the second with a home run off Blach worth 12.2 percent in win probability, and Eguy Rosario extended the lead with another Blach-surrendered home run in the fourth, adding 8.9 percent. The Rockies' most impactful moment came in the top of the third, when Nolan Jones singled off Michael Wacha for a 13.2 percent swing, but Colorado could never fully close the gap despite finishing with 13 hits and plating two runs apiece in the sixth, eighth, and ninth.

Campusano was the game's most valuable contributor by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing at plus-30.4 percent WPA and plus-2.5 RE24. Jones led Colorado's offense with plus-13.3 percent WPA and plus-2.1 RE24, while Rosario added plus-10.4 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24 for San Diego. On the pitching side, Jake Bird led Padres relievers at plus-0.7 percent WPA, with Luis García and Josh Hader each contributing modest positive figures as the bullpen secured the two-run victory.