New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates held off the New York Yankees 3-2 on September 17, 2023, at PNC Park in a tightly contested game that began as a scoreless duel and was not decided until the final out. The DiamondIQ model entered the game assigning each side a 50 percent chance of winning and closed at 100 percent in Pittsburgh's favor, reflecting just how evenly matched the two sides appeared before the late innings reshuffled the probabilities.

The game's decisive sequence unfolded across the sixth and seventh innings. DJ LeMahieu's double off Andre Jackson in the top of the sixth added 15.3 percent to New York's win probability, and Anthony Volpe followed with a home run off Jackson in the top of the seventh for another 15.8 percent swing, giving the Yankees a fleeting sense of control. Pittsburgh answered immediately in the bottom of the seventh when Jason Delay delivered a double off Carlos Rodón worth 14.1 percent in win probability, keeping the Pirates alive. New York mounted one final threat in the ninth when Austin Wells doubled off David Bednar for a 13.7 percent swing, but Volpe followed with a strikeout that cost the Yankees 10.9 percent and effectively ended the comeback.

Pittsburgh's pitching staff was the clearest difference-maker by the DiamondIQ model's estimates. Closer David Bednar led all pitchers with 15.2 percent in WPA despite allowing Wells's double, while Carmen Mlodzinski contributed 10.8 percent and Ryan Borucki added 8.8 percent as the Pirates bullpen collectively shut the door. Among position players, Jared Triolo led Pittsburgh with 11.5 percent WPA and 0.8 RE24, with Liover Peguero and Miguel Andujar each posting comparable lines at plus-11.0 and plus-10.2 percent respectively. The Yankees finished with four hits and one error against Pittsburgh's clean eight-hit, zero-error performance.