Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins shut out the Chicago White Sox 4-0 on September 17, 2023, at Guaranteed Rate Field, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate framed as a dramatic shift from a pre-game 39 percent home win probability for Chicago down to zero at the final out. The game remained scoreless through four innings before the pivotal moment of the night arrived in the top of the fifth, when Edouard Julien drove a home run off Dylan Cease that swung win probability by 26.5 percent in Minnesota's favor. The Twins added an insurance run in the eighth to close at four, while the White Sox never found a sustained threat against a Minnesota pitching staff that held them to six hits without allowing a single run to score.

Chicago's best opportunities to answer came in the fourth and sixth innings, but both went unrealized. Andrew Benintendi doubled off Sonny Gray in the bottom of the fourth for a 6.8 percent swing, and Elvis Andrus followed a similar path with a double in the sixth worth 7.5 percent, yet the White Sox could not convert either moment into runs. Key outs suppressed those chances directly, with Eloy Jimenez's strikeout in the fourth costing Chicago 6.7 percent in win probability and Andrew Vaughn's strikeout in the sixth erasing another 6.6 percent of hope.

Julien led all position players with a final WPA of plus-23.4 and an RE24 of plus-1.8, while Trayce Thompson contributed plus-10.5 WPA and plus-1.0 RE24 in support. The story on the mound, however, belonged to Sonny Gray, who finished with a plus-28.2 WPA, the highest mark of any player in the game, reflecting how consistently he neutralized Chicago's lineup. Griffin Jax added a plus-1.2 WPA in relief, and the model leans toward crediting Gray's sustained dominance as the structural foundation of a complete and efficient Minnesota victory.