MLB Recap · September 17, 2023

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

SF11
Final
COL10

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SF00001820011143
COL00000510410150

The Story

The San Francisco Giants survived a chaotic late-game push from Colorado to escape Coors Field with an 11-10 victory on September 17, 2023. The DiamondIQ model entered the day giving the Rockies a 41 percent chance of winning at home, a figure that evaporated entirely by the final out. The Giants built their cushion in a decisive sixth inning that saw them plate eight runs, more than enough to carry them through what became a genuinely tense finish. Colorado managed five runs of its own in that frame and tacked on four more in the bottom of the ninth, but the rally fell just short.

The game's single biggest swing came in the bottom of the ninth, when Charlie Blackmon lined out against Taylor Rogers with runners on, a moment that shifted win probability by 27.0 percent in San Francisco's favor and effectively closed the door on Colorado's comeback. Earlier, Mitch Haniger had been the catalyst on the other side of the ledger, delivering a double off Chris Flexen in the fifth inning worth 14.0 percent in win probability, followed by Joc Pederson extending the advantage with his own double against Flexen in the sixth, adding another 10.0 percent swing. Blackmon was at the center of several critical moments for Colorado, both positive and negative, finishing with a net WPA of plus 12.0 percent despite two costly outs against Sean Manaea in the third and fifth innings that each cost the Rockies roughly eight percent in win probability.

Among individual performers, Sean Manaea led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 17.6 percent, providing the Giants with an anchor through the middle innings before the bullpen took over. Haniger topped all position players with a WPA of plus 17.1 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Brenton Doyle was Colorado's most productive contributor, posting a WPA of plus 10.0 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.2 despite the loss. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Manaea's early control of the Rockies lineup as the foundation that allowed San Francisco to survive a 10-run offensive output from the home side.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SF bats firstFinalCOL win %SF win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 40.8% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Charlie Blackmon Lineout
Bot 9th · off Taylor Rogers
+27.0%
Mitch Haniger Double
Top 5th · off Chris Flexen
+14.0%
Joc Pederson Double
Top 6th · off Chris Flexen
+10.0%
Charlie Blackmon Grounded Into DP
Bot 3rd · off Sean Manaea
-7.9%
Charlie Blackmon Pop Out
Bot 5th · off Sean Manaea
-7.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Mitch Haniger+17.1%+1.7 RE24
Charlie Blackmon+12.0%-0.9 RE24
Brenton Doyle+10.0%+2.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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