Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins routed the Atlanta Braves 16-2 at loanDepot park on September 17, 2023, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a 41 percent home win probability into a near-certainty by the middle innings. Miami struck decisively in the bottom of the third, a frame that proved to be the game's turning point. Jazz Chisholm Jr. delivered the signature blow of the night, a home run off Charlie Morton that shifted win probability by 15.8 percentage points. The inning did not stop there, as Josh Bell followed with a single worth 8.4 percentage points and Jorge Soler added another single contributing 7.5 percentage points, burying Morton and sending the Braves into a deficit from which they never recovered. Miami continued to pile on with four runs in the sixth and four more in the seventh, finishing with 17 hits and no errors against Atlanta's 9 hits and one error.

The individual performances behind the lopsided final told a clear story. Chisholm finished as the game's top offensive contributor, posting a WPA of plus 17.6 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.9, while Soler matched that RE24 figure with a WPA of plus 7.9 percent. Bell's plus 7.5 percent WPA rounded out Miami's most impactful bats. On the pitching side, Jesús Luzardo was the decisive factor, accumulating a WPA of plus 20.4 percent while limiting Atlanta's offense throughout his outing. Atlanta's bats offered little resistance against Luzardo, with Orlando Arcia's strikeout in the second costing the Braves 5.1 percentage points of win probability and Matt Olson's groundout in the third surrendering another 4.7 percentage points. The DiamondIQ model's estimate reached 100 percent by game's end, a reflection of how thoroughly Miami controlled the contest from the third inning onward.