Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Boston Red Sox 4-3 in 13 innings on September 16, 2023, at Rogers Centre, rallying from a two-run deficit in the ninth inning and ultimately walking off in the 13th. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving Toronto a 59 percent win probability, and that estimate closed at 100 percent as the Blue Jays overcame a scoreless first eight innings before the game burst open across its final five frames.
The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the ninth, where Daulton Varsho delivered the single biggest swing of the game, a triple off John Schreiber that shifted win probability by 48.8 percentage points and kept Toronto alive against a two-run Boston lead built in the sixth. The game stretched into extra innings, and the Red Sox threatened in the top of the 12th when Pablo Reyes punched a single off Jordan Hicks that swung win probability 37.4 points in Boston's favor, with Luis Urías drawing a key strikeout on the same at-bat sequence that added another 21.1 points from the Red Sox perspective. Toronto answered in the bottom of the 12th when George Springer grounded out off Zack Weiss in a situation that nonetheless shifted probability 23.7 points toward the Blue Jays, tying the game and forcing a 13th. There, Whit Merrifield singled off Mauricio Llovera to plate the winning run, a hit worth 35.9 percentage points of win probability.
Varsho finished as the top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating plus-59.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.8, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contributed plus-47.9 percent WPA and led all players with a RE24 of plus-2.0. Reyes added plus-37.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.3 in his role as Boston's most impactful bat. On the pitching side, Chris Martin led all arms with plus-23.3 percent WPA for Toronto, followed by Chris Sale at plus-18.3 percent and Brennan Bernardino at plus-14.6 percent, each playing a role in the extended bullpen battle that defined this 13-inning contest.