Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 6-1 at Busch Stadium on September 16, 2023, handling a Cardinals team that entered with a 43 percent pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Philadelphia scored in four of nine innings, including a three-run fifth that effectively sealed the outcome, while Ranger Suarez kept the Cardinals' offense contained throughout his outing.

The pivotal sequence came in the top of the fifth inning, when Kyle Schwarber connected on a home run off Miles Mikolas that shifted win probability by plus 21.0 percent in Philadelphia's favor, the single largest swing of the game. A Johan Rojas single in the same frame added another plus 5.3 percent, compounding the damage and pushing the Cardinals to the margins of the contest. St. Louis had its best opportunity in the bottom of the third, when Paul Goldschmidt laced a double off Suarez to generate a plus 12.1 percent swing from the Cardinals' perspective, but Ranger Suarez responded by striking out Luken Baker, erasing 8.6 percent of that potential and stranding any serious threat. A Juniel Querecuto strikeout in the second inning had similarly cost St. Louis minus 5.8 percent in win probability, underscoring how Suarez repeatedly neutralized Cardinals rallies before they could develop.

Among individual performers, Schwarber led all batters with a plus 18.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.4, while Willson Contreras contributed plus 10.6 percent WPA and Goldschmidt posted plus 8.7 percent despite being on the losing side. On the mound, Ranger Suarez was the standout, finishing at plus 18.5 percent WPA to lead all pitchers, with Jeff Hoffman adding plus 3.6 percent in relief. Philadelphia's clean execution on both sides — no errors and eleven hits — left the Cardinals with no margin for recovery.