New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 7-5 at PNC Park on September 15, 2023, erasing a deficit through a decisive sixth inning and a decisive ninth-inning rally that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Pittsburgh victory at 0 percent by the final out. The game opened competitively, with each team scoring in the first and second innings, before the contest tightened through the middle frames. Pittsburgh briefly seized momentum in the bottom of the sixth, where a fielding error by the Pirates on a Ke'Bryan Hayes play shifted win probability by 23.2 percent in Pittsburgh's favor, giving the home side a 3-2 lead after six. Aaron Judge had countered earlier in that same inning with a single off Thomas Hatch that added 17.5 percent to New York's win probability, keeping the Yankees within striking distance.

The game turned decisively in the top of the ninth inning against Pirates reliever Colin Holderman, who could not navigate the frame. Estevan Florial drew a walk that added 19.2 percent to the Yankees' win probability, followed by Gleyber Torres working another walk for a 21.1 percent swing. The knockout blow came from Anthony Volpe, whose forceout represented the single biggest play of the game at plus 38.1 percent win probability, capping a four-run ninth that extended the Yankees' lead to 7-5. Volpe finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 28.3 percent, while Judge posted the best run-expectancy figure among batters at plus 1.5 RE24. On the Pittsburgh side, starter Johan Oviedo was the Pirates' most valuable contributor at plus 17.6 percent WPA, a mark that ultimately proved insufficient against the Yankees' late-inning surge.