MLB Recap · September 15, 2023

Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Recap

DET11
Final
LAA2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
DET11010107011150
LAA000000101260

The Story

The Detroit Tigers rolled to an 11-2 victory over the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium on September 15, 2023, a game the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability down to zero percent by the final out. Detroit built its lead methodically through the first six innings before an explosive eight-run eighth inning put the game completely out of reach, with the Tigers finishing with 15 hits and no errors against a Los Angeles lineup that managed only six hits of its own.

The decisive swings came courtesy of Javier Báez and Jake Rogers, both working against Griffin Canning. Báez connected on a fourth-inning home run that shifted win probability 8.9 percentage points in Detroit's favor, and Rogers followed in the sixth with his own home run off Canning, adding another 7.7 percentage points. On the other side, the Angels' best moments were fleeting: David Fletcher's seventh-inning home run off Tarik Skubal accounted for a 5.3 percent swing for Los Angeles, but the Angels' offense otherwise struggled to generate anything sustained, with Randal Grichuk's second-inning strikeout and Eduardo Escobar's fourth-inning forceout representing costly missed opportunities that each cost the home side more than five percentage points in win probability.

Tarik Skubal was the game's most dominant performer by any measure, posting a staggering plus-33.5 percent WPA that stood well above every other contributor on either roster. Báez led Detroit's position players with a plus-10.1 percent WPA and a 1.9 RE24, while Jake Rogers was close behind at plus-7.5 percent WPA and a team-best 2.2 RE24, reflecting his efficiency in run-context value. Parker Meadows added a quieter plus-2.7 percent WPA and a 1.0 RE24 to round out Detroit's top contributors in what was a thoroughly one-sided performance from the visiting Tigers.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025DET bats firstFinalLAA win %DET win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 53.7% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Javier Báez Home Run
Top 4th · off Griffin Canning
+8.9%
Jake Rogers Home Run
Top 6th · off Griffin Canning
+7.7%
Randal Grichuk Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Tarik Skubal
-6.7%
David Fletcher Home Run
Bot 7th · off Tarik Skubal
+5.3%
Eduardo Escobar Forceout
Bot 4th · off Tarik Skubal
-5.2%

Top Batters by WPA

Javier Báez+10.1%+1.9 RE24
Jake Rogers+7.5%+2.2 RE24
Parker Meadows+2.7%+1.0 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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