Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | 5 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Washington Nationals 5-3 on September 15, 2023, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Milwaukee win moving from 66% before the game to 100% by its conclusion. Washington scored all three of its runs in the first inning, but the Brewers answered decisively in the fifth and never relinquished control.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the fifth inning, when William Contreras launched a home run off Jake Irvin that shifted win probability by 31.7 percentage points in Milwaukee's favor, the single largest swing of the game. Carlos Santana followed with a home run of his own off Irvin in the same frame, adding another 13.4 points of win probability. Santana was not finished, as he added a third Brewers home run in the eighth inning, this one off Hunter Harvey, swinging win probability an additional 12.0 points. Irvin had flashed some effectiveness early, as a Rowdy Tellez strikeout in the second and a Sal Frelick groundout in the first each subtracted roughly 11 to 12 points of win probability from Milwaukee's side, but the fifth inning erased any suggestion of a Nationals hold.
Contreras finished as the game's top performer with a WPA of plus-34.4 and an RE24 of plus-2.8, while Santana contributed plus-23.1 WPA and plus-1.9 RE24 across his two home runs. Michael Chavis added plus-8.0 WPA on the offensive side for Milwaukee. On the mound, the Brewers bullpen preserved the lead efficiently, with Trevor Megill contributing plus-11.9 WPA, Abner Uribe plus-10.8, and Devin Williams plus-6.3 to close it out.