San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies walked off the San Francisco Giants 3-2 on September 15, 2023, at Coors Field in a game that remained extraordinarily tight until its final moments. The Giants carried a 2-1 lead into the bottom of the ninth, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Colorado win probability had started at just 40% before the game, reflecting how evenly matched these clubs were on paper. Logan Webb contributed 27.6% in win probability added for San Francisco, and Chase Anderson led all pitchers at +30.4% WPA, anchoring a Colorado staff that kept the Giants offense to just two hits all night.

The ninth inning decided everything. Wilmer Flores drew a walk off Nick Mears to open the top half, a play the DiamondIQ model valued at +34.8% win probability for San Francisco, and J.D. Davis followed with a double worth another +17.5%, pushing the Giants ahead 2-1 and swinging the game firmly in their favor. But Camilo Doval could not protect the lead. Charlie Blackmon opened the bottom of the ninth with a double off Doval, a swing worth +25.1% win probability for Colorado, and after a Kris Bryant groundout briefly deflated the Rockies at -16.6%, Elehuris Montero delivered the decisive blow, a walk-off single that added +67.2% to Colorado's win probability in a single stroke.

Montero finished as the game's most impactful player by a wide margin, posting +60.1% WPA and +0.8 RE24 on the evening. Flores was the top performer for San Francisco with +34.8% WPA and a team-best +1.2 RE24, while Blackmon's +19.3% WPA and +0.6 RE24 made him Colorado's second-most valuable bat. The DiamondIQ model entered the ninth inning heavily favoring San Francisco before Montero's single brought the model's estimate of a Colorado win to 100%.