Cincinnati Reds at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers handled the Cincinnati Reds 8-2 at Comerica Park on September 14, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected clearly as win probability climbed from a dead-even 49 percent pre-game all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Detroit built its lead incrementally, scoring in the first, fourth, seventh, and eighth innings, while the Reds managed only a sixth-inning run and a ninth-inning run against a Tigers pitching staff that controlled the game from start to finish.

The swing that most defined the contest came in the bottom of the fourth, when Akil Baddoo connected on a home run off Ben Lively for a shift of plus-14.7 percent win probability, the single largest play of the night. Cincinnati's best chance to claw back arrived in the top of the sixth, when Spencer Steer hit a home run off Reese Olson to add 8.3 percent to the Reds' win probability, but that momentum dissolved almost immediately when Nick Martini grounded into a double play in the same frame, swinging win probability 8.5 percent back toward Detroit. The Reds compounded their troubles in the seventh when Joey Votto grounded into another double play off Will Vest, costing Cincinnati 11.8 percent in win probability. Spencer Torkelson's run-scoring single off Buck Farmer in the bottom of the seventh, worth 8.3 percent, effectively closed the door.

Among individual performers, Baddoo led all batters with a plus-13.2 percent WPA and plus-1.5 RE24. On the pitching side, Reese Olson was the standout with a plus-21.1 percent WPA, while Will Vest and Jason Foley added 7.2 and 6.0 percent respectively, combining to suppress any late Reds threat. Cincinnati finished with two errors to Detroit's one, a detail that reflected the sloppiness that plagued the visitors throughout a lopsided afternoon in Michigan.