Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Miami Marlins 4-2 at American Family Field on September 14, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game at 59% in favor of the home side and finishing at 100% as Milwaukee pulled away for a clean two-run victory. Milwaukee's pitching staff and a pair of decisive swings from Tyrone Taylor proved to be the difference in a game that stayed relatively tight before the Brewers seized control in the fifth inning.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the fifth, where Taylor delivered a double off Eury Pérez that shifted win probability by plus 13.0%, the single largest swing of the game. Sal Frelick followed with a single off Pérez worth another plus 11.7%, and together those two blows defined Milwaukee's two-run rally that inning. Miami had generated its own momentum swing moments earlier in the top of the fifth, when Jacob Stallings singled off Adrian Houser for a plus 10.3% swing, accounting for the Marlins' lone run in that frame. Taylor added further separation in the bottom of the seventh with another double, this one off Steven Okert, worth plus 8.7%. An early strikeout of Brice Turang by Pérez in the second had been Milwaukee's costliest missed opportunity at minus 7.4%.

Taylor finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer with a combined WPA of plus 19.1% and a RE24 of plus 1.4, while Frelick contributed plus 9.1% WPA and Stallings was Miami's lone bright spot at plus 4.1%. On the mound, the Milwaukee bullpen carried the model-leaning advantage home, with Abner Uribe posting plus 8.5% WPA, Joel Payamps plus 8.1%, and George Soriano plus 7.7% as the trio locked down the Marlins over the game's final frames.