MLB Recap · September 13, 2023

Cincinnati Reds at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

CIN4
Final
DET3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CIN020200000450
DET002100000370

The Story

The Cincinnati Reds held on to defeat the Detroit Tigers 4-3 at Comerica Park on September 13, 2023, with all the scoring condensed into the first four innings. The Reds plated two runs in the second and two more in the fourth, while Detroit answered with two in the third and one in the fourth, leaving the final five innings scoreless as both bullpens locked down. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with a 48 percent home win probability for Detroit, reflecting a near-even contest, before closing at zero percent as Alexis Díaz retired the final Tigers in the ninth.

The decisive swing of the game came in the bottom of the ninth, when Parker Meadows lined out against Díaz in what the DiamondIQ model registered as a +27.0 percent win-probability shift for Cincinnati, the single largest play of the night. That sequence effectively ended Detroit's last meaningful threat. Earlier, Spencer Torkelson had provided Detroit its best moment with a third-inning home run off Connor Phillips that added +18.7 percent to the Tigers' win probability, briefly pulling the home side back into contention. Torkelson, however, also featured in two of the game's costliest Detroit moments, grounding out in the eighth off Daniel Duarte at -16.5 percent, after Duarte had already become the most impactful pitcher of the night at +23.3 percent WPA. Tyler Nevin's strikeout against Díaz in the ninth added another -10.7 percent loss for Detroit.

Among the game's top performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, Parker Meadows led all batters at +16.4 percent WPA despite a negative RE24 of -0.7, illustrating how his contributions were concentrated in high-leverage moments rather than run production. TJ Friedl posted +12.7 percent WPA alongside a +2.2 RE24, reflecting consistent value in run-environment terms for Cincinnati, while Andy Ibáñez contributed +11.3 percent WPA. On the mound, Alex Faedo added +17.6 percent WPA in a strong showing for Detroit, and Sam Moll's +10.5 percent represented another key bridge inning for the Reds' staff, which combined to hold Detroit scoreless from the fifth inning onward.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CIN bats firstFinalDET win %CIN win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 47.8% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Parker Meadows Lineout
Bot 9th · off Alexis Díaz
+27.0%
Spencer Torkelson Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Connor Phillips
+18.7%
Spencer Torkelson Groundout
Bot 8th · off Daniel Duarte
-16.5%
Tyler Nevin Strikeout
Bot 9th · off Alexis Díaz
-10.7%
Parker Meadows Groundout
Bot 5th · off Sam Moll
-10.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Parker Meadows+16.4%-0.7 RE24
TJ Friedl+12.7%+2.2 RE24
Andy Ibáñez+11.3%+0.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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