Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets handed the Arizona Diamondbacks a 7-1 defeat at Citi Field on September 13, 2023, steadily pulling away across the middle innings to leave the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mets win probability climbing from a near-even 49 percent before first pitch all the way to 100 percent by game's end. The Mets opened the scoring in the first inning and never relinquished the lead, building on it in each of the fourth, fifth, and sixth frames while Arizona's lone run did not arrive until the eighth, long after the outcome had effectively been decided.

The pivotal sequence came in the fourth and fifth innings against Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen. Rafael Ortega delivered a double in the bottom of the fourth that shifted win probability 9.7 percent in New York's favor, and Pete Alonso followed with the game's single most consequential swing, a double in the fifth that added 13.1 percent to the Mets' win probability. Arizona offered little resistance offensively, with Tommy Pham's groundout into a double play in the top of the sixth costing the Diamondbacks 5.7 percent in win probability at a moment when they could least afford the regression, compounding an earlier pop out by Jake McCarthy in the second that had already erased a 5.3 percent window of opportunity.

The most dominant individual contribution came from Mets left-hander Joey Lucchesi, whose outing generated a staggering plus-28.4 percent in win probability added, the clear pillar of New York's pitching performance. Alonso finished as the top offensive contributor at plus-12.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.1, while Ortega added plus-8.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.3. Brett Baty also contributed positively at plus-4.6 percent WPA. Arizona managed only six hits and committed an error, finishing with a performance that gave the Mets little resistance in what became a wire-to-wire victory.