MLB Recap · September 13, 2023

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

LAA2
Final
SEA3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAA001100000261
SEA00102000-350

The Story

The Seattle Mariners held off the Los Angeles Angels 3-2 at T-Mobile Park on September 13, 2023, in a low-scoring affair that the DiamondIQ model had favored from the start, assigning Seattle a 63% pre-game win probability that ultimately climbed to 100% by the final out.

The game's turning points were clustered in the middle innings and carried significant win-probability weight. Brett Phillips gave the Angels an early foothold in the third inning with a home run off Luis Castillo, a swing that added 10.7 percentage points to Los Angeles's chances. Brandon Drury followed with a double in the fourth, adding another 13.3 points and briefly keeping the Angels competitive. Seattle answered in the fifth when Teoscar Hernández singled off Jimmy Herget, the most impactful single play of the game at plus 15.9 points for the Mariners, helping erase the deficit and tilt the contest decisively in Seattle's favor. Julio Rodríguez had also contributed a double off José Marte in the third that added 11.4 points to Seattle's side. The Angels' best chance to reclaim momentum evaporated in the seventh when Nolan Schanuel grounded out against Justin Topa, a sequence that cost Los Angeles 15.6 percentage points and effectively closed the door.

Phillips led all batters by WPA at plus 24.4 with a RE24 of plus 1.6, while Drury finished at plus 17.9 and Rodríguez added plus 12.3. On the mound, Seattle's bullpen was decisive: Andrés Muñoz led all pitchers at plus 15.2 percentage points, followed by Andrew Wantz at plus 11.2 and Matt Brash at plus 10.8, a trio that collectively secured the one-run victory for the Mariners.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAA bats firstFinalSEA win %LAA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 63% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Bot 5th · off Jimmy Herget
+15.9%
Nolan Schanuel Groundout
Top 7th · off Justin Topa
-15.6%
Brandon Drury Double
Top 4th · off Luis Castillo
+13.3%
Julio Rodríguez Double
Bot 3rd · off José Marte
+11.4%
Brett Phillips Home Run
Top 3rd · off Luis Castillo
+10.7%

Top Batters by WPA

Brett Phillips+24.4%+1.6 RE24
Brandon Drury+17.9%+1.2 RE24
Julio Rodríguez+12.3%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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