New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Boston Red Sox 3-2 at Fenway Park on September 11, 2023, overcoming a 2-0 deficit entering the sixth inning to hand Boston a loss in front of its home crowd. The DiamondIQ model opened the night giving Boston a 55% chance of winning, a figure that steadily eroded before reaching 0% by the final out.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the sixth against Nick Pivetta. DJ LeMahieu delivered a double that shifted win probability 16.1 points in New York's favor, and Gleyber Torres followed with a single that moved the needle an additional 21.3 points, the single largest win-probability swing of the game. Those two hits were the engine of a three-run frame that gave the Yankees a 3-2 lead they would not relinquish. Boston had chances to respond, but the Red Sox bullpen situation flipped when Masataka Yoshida struck out against Wandy Peralta in the eighth, a swing of negative 16.5 points for the home side, and Alex Verdugo grounded into a double play off Clay Holmes in the ninth, costing Boston another 16.3 points of win probability despite Reese McGuire having drawn a walk moments earlier that briefly offered the Red Sox hope.

On the pitching side, Wandy Peralta was the game's most impactful arm by WPA, finishing at plus-23.3 points, with Mauricio Llovera adding 16.9 points and Jhony Brito contributing 13.1 points in what amounted to a collective bullpen effort to protect the slim lead. Among hitters, Torres led New York at plus-16.3 WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.1, while LeMahieu posted plus-9.9 WPA. For Boston, McGuire's ninth-inning walk registered as the club's highest individual batting contribution at plus-17.1 WPA, though it proved insufficient as the Red Sox managed seven hits but could not translate them into the tying or winning run.