MLB Recap · September 12, 2023

Cincinnati Reds at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

CIN6
Final
DET5

Line Score

Team12345678910RHE
CIN0320000001690
DET3000200000592

The Story

The Cincinnati Reds outlasted the Detroit Tigers 6-5 in ten innings at Comerica Park on September 12, 2023, completing a comeback that erased a three-run deficit built in the first inning. Detroit jumped out to a 3-0 lead after the opening frame, but Cincinnati answered with three runs in the second and two more in the third, swinging the game's momentum before the two clubs played through a scoreless back half that stretched all the way to extras. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 48 percent home win probability, and the two franchises traded enough pressure over the final innings to keep that figure contested until the very end.

The decisive blow came in the top of the tenth when Tyler Stephenson singled off Alex Lange to push Cincinnati ahead by one, a hit the DiamondIQ model valued at a +36.5 percent win-probability swing and the single largest play of the game. Detroit's half of the tenth unraveled quickly against Buck Farmer, with Akil Baddoo's fielder's choice out costing the Tigers 33.9 percentage points of win probability, and subsequent outs by Kerry Carpenter via strikeout and Spencer Torkelson via flyout adding another 27.0 and 23.7 points respectively back to Cincinnati's ledger. Harrison Bader's double off Joey Wentz in the third, worth +18.9 percent, had been the earlier turning point that helped Cincinnati construct its go-ahead cushion.

By WPA, Kerry Carpenter led all batters at +32.7 percent despite his critical tenth-inning strikeout, driven by earlier production that registered a +0.5 RE24. Stephenson finished at +31.8 percent with a +1.3 RE24, and Andy Ibáñez posted the game's best run-context figure at +2.0 RE24 alongside a +22.6 percent WPA contribution. On the pitching side, Tyler Holton paced Cincinnati's staff at +16.5 percent, with Jason Foley close behind at +15.9 percent and Ian Gibaut adding +10.9 percent as the bullpen held Detroit scoreless from the fifth inning onward. The model leans toward crediting the Cincinnati relief corps and Stephenson's tenth-inning single as the defining factors in a narrow road victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CIN bats firstFinalDET win %CIN win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 48.5% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Tyler Stephenson Single
Top 10th · off Alex Lange
+36.5%
Akil Baddoo Fielders Choice Out
Bot 10th · off Buck Farmer
-33.9%
Kerry Carpenter Strikeout
Bot 10th · off Buck Farmer
+27.0%
Bot 10th · off Buck Farmer
+23.7%
Harrison Bader Double
Top 3rd · off Joey Wentz
+18.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Kerry Carpenter+32.7%+0.5 RE24
Tyler Stephenson+31.8%+1.3 RE24
Andy Ibáñez+22.6%+2.0 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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